It feels sooo good to be back!
With a full offseason to prepare and a bye week following the SMU game, one would expect this review to come out in a timely manner. And I was able to review the game tape right away. But as I’m sure you can empathize, I was swept away in SECession, Part Duex: Attack of Baylor Lawyers and this post just kept getting pushed back.
But I’m fresh out of excuses, hopped up on Coke Zero, and ready to get this season started. If you’re wondering what you’re getting yourself into by scrolling down this ridiculously long post, the purpose of RTHO is to go beyond the box score and get a better idea of just how well individuals are performing on a game-by-game basis.
So without any more delay, here is the inaugural 2011 Review the Hell Outta for your Fightin’ Texas Aggies. (For reference, here are the final 2010 RTHO numbers.)
Offensive Line
The old adage goes, “It all starts up front”, and if this blog is nothing else, it is one that strictly adheres to old adages. When looking at how the line does in pass protection, each dropback is charted into one of the following categories…
Clean. The QB is provided ample time to go through his reads without the pass rush affecting his timing. (Screens to the RBs or WRs, which require much less in the way of pass protection, are shown in parentheses).
Pressure. The O-line does not hold up and the pass rush affects the decision making of the QB. Not all pressure results in a sack or knockdown, and the QB can still make good throws facing pressure.
Sacks. Durr.
Using these different categories, two metrics are then calculated.
Protect Rate. This is the percentage of dropbacks, not including screens, for which the QB is given sufficient time.
Protect Rate = (Clean – Scrn)
(Total – Scrn)
Sack Rate. Percentage of dropbacks that result in a sack. = (Sacks) / (Total)
Sack Rate = (Sacks)
(Total)
The opposing team’s Defensive Rank, based on sacks per game, is also shown for context.
In what turned out to be a slow-paced game with not a lot of throwing, the o-line was only asked to protect on 21 full dropbacks. They protected at an amazing clip of 95%, with TE Hutson Prioleau having the lone failed blocking assignment, and turned in a flawless night’s work in the sack department against a front 7 that ranked in the top half of the nation last year in sacks per game.
Looking at the SMU game relative to last year, we see that the O-line did it’s best job in my short time keeping tabs on their performance. And to make it even more impressive, last year the oline was given credit for screen plays as well. So the same performance in 2010 and 2011 would appear slightly lower in 2011.
Quarterbacks
When you get such a great performance from the oline, you hope that the QB can make good use of that clean pocket. Looking at each dropback by the QB, I chart every play into one of the following categories.
Dead On (DO). A big-time throw, with the ball being delivered exactly where it needs to be. This will be reserved for plays downfield, threading the needle, completions under heavy duress, and other exceptional plays by the QB.
Catchable (CA). This is the garden variety pass play that doesn't require anything exceptional, other than good timing and accuracy. Also, well-executed screens, quick slants, flares and other quick-hitting plays will top out here. (Screens and throws to the flat at or behind the line of scrimmage are shown in parentheses).
50/50 (50). Somewhere between a catchable ball and an inaccurate ball, usually a jump ball or ball thrown low or behind the receiver. A lot of deep balls thrown to a covered receiver end up in this category.
Inaccurate (IN). The QB doesn't give the receiver a good chance to catch the ball, or puts him in a bad spot. Some of these balls are still caught.
Bad Play (BP). The QB makes a bad decision. This could include throwing into double coverage or directly at a DB, not reading a LB dropping back in coverage, leaving the pocket too early, holding the ball too long and taking a sack, throwing the ball away when you shouldn't (4th down or end of game situations where you have to give the WR a chance to make a play), and such. (INTs/sacks shown in parentheses).
Pressure (PR). The o-line lets the defense get pressure on the QB and the play breaks down, resulting in a sack or throwaway.
Batted (BA). Pass knocked down at line of scrimmage. This will generally not be held against the QB, assuming it happens infrequently. If it happens multiple times every game, it may be time to examine the QB’s throwing motion and ability to find holes in the defensive front to pass through.
Scramble (SCR). The QB takes off running.
Mixup (MIX). QB and WR are not on the same page. Since I am not privy to the play call, no fault is assumed. As with batted balls, this is something that becomes alarming as frequency increases.
The first four categories (Dead On; Catchable; 50/50; Inaccurate) are used on a sliding scale as the depth of the pass downfield increases. Where as a ball thrown just beyond a WR’s reach 30 yards downfield might be considered 50/50, a ball thrown beyond a WR’s reach 6 yards down the field will result in an Inaccurate rating. Once every dropback is charted, two metrics are calculated.
Downfield Success Rate (DSR). A modified completion percentage independent of receiver effects. This gives us a good idea of how well the QB is able to threaten the defense through the air. Screens to the RBs and WRs are removed, since these types of passes require much less from the QB and can often lead to inflated passing stats.
DSR = (DO+CA(non-screen)+0.5*50)
(DO+CA(non-screen)+"50"+IN+BP)
Bad Play Rate (BPR). What percentage of plays does the QB make a bad decision. Obviously, the lower the better.
BPR = ____________(BP)___________
(DO+CA(non-screen)+50+IN+BP)
The O-line Protect Rate and Defensive Rank (based on Yards-per-attempt allowed) are also shown for context.
Hope all of that makes sense. So here is the modified stat line for senior QB Ryan Tannehill against the SMU defense.
As previously stated, this was a game with little passing and a heavy emphasis on the short and safe passing game. The single play that was identified as Dead On was the pass down the seam to Hutson, as the ball was perfectly thrown over the trailing linebacker, hitting him perfectly in stride.
The lone Bad Play was the play-action pass where Ryan got lazy with his fake hand-off and held the ball out too long, causing a fumble. While this play did hurt the team in this specific instance, such a play could result in a damaging turnover under different circumstances. But otherwise, a near flawless performance for Ryan in a game where he was not asked to do too much.
Looking at his performance relative to last season, we see that Ryan continues to do an exceptional job of delivering the ball downfield, notching his highest DSR ever.
And it is no coincidence that the highest Downfield Success Rate to date occurred in the same game that the highest Protect Rate to date occurred. As anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of dropback passing realizes, the safer the QB feels in the pocket, the more confidence he has to go through his progressions and find the open man. And conversely, a QB who faces constant pressure will often rush through his drop and reads, resulting in accurate throws and bad decisions.
Receivers
Moving on the the final portion of the passing game, we take a look at the receivers. Each passing target is charted in one of the following categories: (note that not all balls actually make it to the receiver, due either to a ball being batted down or being extremely inaccurate).
0 (No play). The WR has no chance to catch this ball. It's either been batted down, thrown out of bounds or out of range, or the WR was interfered during the play. Noted for target count.
1 (Inaccurate). Poorly delivered ball that requires extraordinary effort on the part of the WR. If the WR does catch one of these, feel free to voice your approval. Incompletions are not held against the WR. (catches/total)
2 (Marginal). Low, high, behind, into coverage - this ball was not delivered well but the WR still has a chance. Hopefully the receiver can pull in 50-75% of these opportunities. (Catches/total)
3 (Routine). The ball hits the receiver in the hands, no excuses for a drop. (Catches/total)
Here are the numbers from the SMU game.
Not to be outdone by the oline or QB, the A&M receivers turned in near-perfect day. The only 2 drops were both by runningbacks and Ryan Swope had himself a heck of a day grabbing both marginal balls. EZ also contributed with a tough grab of his own. Keeping in line with last season, passing targets were predominantly to Fuller (32%) and Swope (28%). This duo received half of all targets last year and will likely come near that number again this year. The downfield seam to Hutson was a welcome addition to the offense
Running Backs
The newest addition to RTHO is a chart for the A&M ball carriers. Each rush attempt is categorized into the following groups (0 yards or less; 1-4 yards; 5-9 yards; 10+ yards). The average rush attempt is somewhere around 4 yards, and based on research done by Football Outsiders, these first 4 yards are heavily dependent on the blocking of the offensive line. Rushes less than 4 yards point to the oline failing to get a good push off the ball and runs consistantly beyond 5 yards show the oline is opening up holes for the RB. At the same time, a RB’s ability to break tackles, push piles and utilize even the smallest openings will push more of his rush attempts beyond this 4 yard mark. So while it is impossible to separate the ability of the line to block from the ability of the RB to create yards on his own, by looking at each individual ball carrier, we can get a better idea of which RB might bring more to the table (assuming blocking is head relatively constant for each ball carrier).
Overall Success Rate. Beyond charting each rush on a raw yardage basis, I also take a look at how well the RB does relative to the down and yards-to-go. Each rush is considered a win based on achieving a minimum of:
- 40% of yards to go on 1st down (4 yard gain on 1st and 10; capped at 6 yards)
- 66% of yards to go on 2nd down (3 yard gain on 2nd and 5; capped at 8 yards)
- 100% of yards to go on 3rd and 4th down (usually either a 1st down or TD; capped at 10 yards)
This will give us a better idea of how well the RB is doing in context of game situations. The caps for each down are used in order to not punish RBs who carry the ball in extremely long yards-to-go plays, such as 3rd and 18. If the RB is required to get a 1st down on such a carry, it would be almost an automatic loss.
Power Success Rate. Very similar to the Overall Success Rate, but with a specific emphasis on 3rd and 4th down carries with 3 or less yards to go for a 1st down or TD. Also, all downs with goal-to-go from the 3 yard line or closer are charted. This will tell us how much success the ball carrier has on those downs where the defense really protects against the run, along with showing us who the coaching staff trusts the most to get the tough yards.
So here is the first attempt at a Run Chart.
Cyrus and Christine were the only back to get multiple carries and both backs had outstanding Overall Success Rates. We can see that Cyrus was a little bit better than C-Mike at consistantly breaking the 4 yard barrier; but both backs did extremely well.
This area, more than any other, is a work in progress and will likely undergo changes as the season progresses. So if any of this is confusing, or you have any suggestions, please leave a comment. And hopefully as the carries pile up, we can get some additional insight into our two-headed monster toting the rock.
Overall
This game should be seen as nothing other than a rousing success. For the first game of the season, the oline did a great job of protecting the QB; Tannehill was very accurate and in sych with his receivers; and, 1-2 punch at running back consistant broke long runs. I’m not sure the coaching staff could have asked for much more from the entire offensive unit.
